Monday, November 22, 2010

Hermetic Economic Forecast

Ok, take a look at THIS LINK showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 through 2010. Then click the little links towards the bottom of the page that shows the time period in 20-year increments. Look at what happens every single decade. Towards the beginning, a big dip, followed by a slow recovery, followed by a climb for the last half of the decade, and then another crash, correction, recession, depression, whatever. Then slow recovery, rapid growth, correction/crash, slow growth, rapid growth, correction/crash, slow growth and so on and so forth.

Pretty much.*

Ok? Every 10 years. This ain't rocket science. Our ancestors could figure out the astrological timing of the stars to set up neat tricks with the lighting and architecture of major massive monuments, right? You think economists could look at one simple graph and see that things are going along the same way they have as long as we've been keeping records?


Anyway, folks, as summer follows spring, and winter follows autumn, so also will growth continue to be slow until around 2015-2016, at which point things will get better faster, especially for those who have prepared themselves to be in a position to invest when things start picking up. Invest heavily around 2015, start selling off the riskier stuff in 2017, pull out of the market by 2018, and then get back in when things are at the bottom. There's not better time to have a lot of money than when the economy is bad. You get such deals on everything. Minions that cost $125k a couple years ago are going for $70k and no benefits now. And they're working harder because they know they're LUCKY to even have a job.

Think of your financial lifecycle as a farm. You start out with a few seeds, plant them, harvest them, sell a lot of the produce, but keep as many of the seeds for the next year's crop as you can plant and take care of. Each year, plant, grow, harvest, and save. This is the time you build up your seed stores, and then when it's time to invest, you'll have plenty of seed money. Sock it away now in savings, only take sure bets, and work your tail off for meager profits that go right into savings for when it's time to invest heavily. The more you've got on hand to put into the market in five years, the better.

Cycles, harmony, passive observation and working with the currents to strategically get ahead. Inhale. Pause. Exhale. Pause. IHVH. Get to work.

* "Pretty Much" means that yeah, there are exceptions, and it's not exact, but I mean, come one, it's close enough to be a good indicator, you know? Generally speaking.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, your opinions are valued, even if I disagree with them. Please feel free to criticize my ideas and arguments, question my observations, and push back if you disagree.